According to BlockBeats, on September 16th, Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket, announced that Collin McKinney Hill has joined Polymarket as Vice President of Operations. Collin McKinney Hill previously served as General Manager of the food delivery platform DoorDash, where he was responsible for one of the largest business units of the restaurant platform, including enterprise business and existing customer business.

According to BlockBeats, on September 15th, Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, posted that the US Senate vote on the CLARITY Act is about to take place. Currently, the Democrats have verbally opposed the Republican version due to so-called ethical issues, and the probability of the related predictions by Polymarket has also dropped significantly, with the market basically pricing in the possibility that the vote result will be worse than expected.

Dedic believes that regardless of the vote's outcome, the US crypto industry will see a clearer regulatory path. Even if the bill fails to pass, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may still push for similar crypto regulatory measures.

He stated that if the US fails to advance crypto legislation, it could lead some crypto companies to relocate their operations overseas, weakening the US's leading position in cutting-edge finance. However, Dedic believes the US will ultimately not stand idly by, so regardless of whether the Claritism Act passes, the US crypto industry is likely to continue to enjoy a favorable regulatory environment.

According to BlockBeats, on September 14th, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of B.TOP mining pool, posted an article stating that although the latest Republican-released "CLARITY Act" text claims to have "conceded 80% of the contentious clauses" to the Democrats and boosted the bill's passage probability on Polymarket from 14% to 28%, he believes the actual concessions may only be about 60%, and the compromises on some key clauses have not substantially resolved the differences.

Jiang Zhuoer cited the ethics clause as an example, saying that the Democratic Party had previously demanded that the restrictions cover federal officials, spouses, children and related entities, but the new text only expands to "officials + spouses" and does not include children and related entities. Therefore, he believes that this concession has limited significance.

Regarding the enforcement provisions, Jiang Zhuoer pointed out that Republicans had previously only agreed to allow the Department of Justice to prosecute, while Democrats demanded that state attorneys general be given enforcement power. While the new text allows state attorneys general to prosecute, the scope is limited to exchanges listing illegal tokens, and cannot address inadequate enforcement of ethical provisions or the president himself. He believes that such a solution, which "only concedes half of the key provisions," is unlikely to truly meet the core demands of the Democrats.

Jiang Zhuoer believes that the Democratic Party has no reason to offer this "gift" to the Trump administration before the midterm elections, and therefore is unlikely to accept the current version. He predicts that the procedural vote scheduled for 2:15 AM Beijing time on September 16th has little chance of passing, and warns that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, it could trigger a correction in the current BTC price surge.

According to BlockBeats, on September 14th, the crypto market has significantly outperformed other risk assets recently. Bitcoin rose over 1% in the past 24 hours, reaching around $77,800, while Ethereum rose approximately 2%, reaching $2,500. Meanwhile, AI and technology stocks were generally under pressure due to market concerns that the development of cutting-edge AI might slow down.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently called for a slowdown in cutting-edge AI development, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk support a more cautious development pace. Market concerns that a slowdown in AI development could delay orders for advanced chips and computing power demand have led to pre-market declines in CoreWeave and Cipher Digital (both down about 6%), MARA (down 5%), and IREN (down 4%).

In contrast, the crypto market is supported by rising expectations surrounding the U.S. CLARITY Act. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill being signed into law this year has risen to about 30%, a significant increase from 12% in early September, with the Senate scheduled to hold a procedural vote on Tuesday.

According to BlockBeats, on September 14th, TradingBeats monitoring revealed that Smart Money TestingThingsOut recently placed HYPE and ZEC on one end of its trading range, while BTC and ETH were on the other. The former two combined held approximately $20.894 million in long positions, and the latter two combined held approximately $20.906 million in short positions. The nominal size of the long and short positions was almost equal, totaling over $40 million.

The account position shows a logic biased towards relative strength trading, using short positions in BTC and ETH to hedge against market volatility, and betting that HYPE and ZEC, which have performed well recently, will continue to outperform.

This round of position building began on the evening of September 11th. TestingThingsOut bought 170,200 HYPE tokens, opening a position of approximately $14.005 million; ZEC saw a net long position of 6,500 tokens. Simultaneously, 140 BTC were newly established as short positions, and the ETH short position was expanded to 4,000 tokens.

As of press time, the four positions are as follows:

- HYPE long position: valued at approximately $13.631 million, with a floating loss of approximately $374,000;

- ZEC long position: valued at approximately $7.263 million, with a floating loss of approximately $415,000;

- BTC short position: valued at approximately $10.857 million, with a floating profit of approximately $109,000;

- ETH short position: valued at approximately $10.049 million, with a floating profit of approximately $142,000.

The four positions totaled approximately $41.8 million, with a net unrealized loss of approximately $538,000. This bet has not yet been cashed out. Starting from around the evening of September 11th, BTC appreciated by approximately 0.57% relative to HYPE; during the same period, BTC appreciated by approximately 0.41% relative to ZEC.

If we calculate from the end of the position building in the early morning of September 12, the HYPE/BTC price ratio fell by about 0.80%, and the ZEC/BTC price ratio fell by about 3.44%, with ZEC showing a more obvious relative weakness.

In addition, its Polymarket-linked address still holds approximately 9,500 "HYPE fell to $20 this year" No., with an implied probability of approximately 95.5% for this No., and no new transactions have been added in the past three days.

According to BlockBeats, on September 12, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had previously secretly approved at least three insider trading investigations into Polymarket transactions, involving contracts related to Biden's pardon, the Iran war, and Google-related events. The relevant investigation documents were obtained by WIRED through the Freedom of Information Act.

In May, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation into contracts related to Biden's pardon, after a trader had profited more than $300,000 in the relevant market. In the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into contracts related to the Iran war, after a group of suspicious accounts were exposed for profiting $2.4 million with a win rate of about 98%.

In July, the CFTC launched a further investigation into Google's Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have used non-public information about Google's 2025 search rankings for trading. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation.

It cannot yet be confirmed whether the aforementioned accounts are linked to individuals previously investigated. Polymarket stated that it will forward the matter to law enforcement and cooperate with the investigation. As prediction markets rapidly expand, U.S. regulators are significantly intensifying their scrutiny of insider trading and market manipulation.